Evidence-Informed Employment Policy Decisions under Uncertainty: Regional Output, Minimum Wages, and Education in Lampung

Sulistiyono; Erike Anggraeni

doi:10.64268/jifes.v2i1.166

Authors

Sulistiyono Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung
Erike Anggraeni Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.64268/jifes.v2i1.166

Keywords:

Decision Sciences, Evidence-informed policy, Employment, Minimum wages, Educational attainment, Regional uncertainty

Abstract

Background: Regional labor-market policy must balance job creation, wage protection, and workforce capability despite uncertain evidence.

Aims: To appraise reported associations between regional economic performance, minimum wages, educational attainment, and employment in Lampung and clarify their decision relevance.

Methods: A retrospective reappraisal used published regression results for 14 districts/municipalities over 2013–2015 (42 district-year observations). The original analysis employed multiple linear regression in SPSS 17; a qualitative decision-evidence matrix was subsequently developed without new estimation or policy optimization.

Results: Economic performance (B = 0.172, p = .537) and minimum wages (B = −0.029, p = .958) were not statistically significant, while education was positively associated with labor absorption (B = 0.447, p < .001). Model fit was F(3, 38) = 13.277, p < .001, R² = .512.

Conclusion: Education provides a historical diagnostic signal rather than evidence of program effectiveness. The matrix identifies missing information on measurement, causal effects, costs, and distributional trade-offs before policy choices can be assessed.

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